VIPSolutionsForecasting A store manager forecasts demand for one of its most popular items using exponential smoothing with alpha=0.46. Two weeks ago, the actual demand was 30, and the forecast was 40, Last week, demand was 50. What is this week's forecast? 0 oh Demand (measure in units) for a newly opened brewery for the first six months arc given below. Jan, 394 Bei Feb, 365 pi Mar. 380 Fa Apr. 439° JF FF J A ta May $28 FF JA ta Jun, a7 Fo LAA 2) SET rrr, i FELT TS a HI rS? b) Ifa four-month weighted MA method is used with weights of 0.1, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.4. What is the forecast for July? 0.4 is the weight for last month, 0.2 is the weight for two months 280, 0.3 i the weight for three months ago, and 0.1 is the weight for four months ago.
Question:
Forecasting
A store manager forecasts demand for one of its most popular items using exponential smoothing
with alpha=0.46. Two weeks ago, the actual demand was 30, and the forecast was 40, Last week,
demand was 50. What is this week's forecast?
0 oh
Demand (measure in units) for a newly opened brewery for the first six months arc given below.
Jan, 394 Bei
Feb, 365 pi
Mar. 380 Fa
Apr. 439° JF FF J A ta
May $28 FF JA ta
Jun, a7 Fo LAA
2) SET rrr, i
FELT TS a
HI rS?
b) Ifa four-month weighted MA method is used with weights of 0.1, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.4. What
is the forecast for July? 0.4 is the weight for last month, 0.2 is the weight for two months
280, 0.3 i the weight for three months ago, and 0.1 is the weight for four months ago.
This is AI generated Response.
Asked by: Rockey
Created at: 2025-09-16 05:27:53
Asked by: Rockey
Created at: 2025-09-16 05:27:53
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# Forecasting Solutions
---
## 1. Exponential Smoothing Forecast
**Given:**
- Alpha (\(\alpha\)) = 0.46
- Two weeks ago:
- Actual demand = 30
- Forecast = 40
- Last week:
- Actual demand = 50
**Exponential Smoothing Formula:**
\[
F_t = \alpha A_{t-1} + (1-\alpha) F_{t-1}
\]
Where:
- \(F_t\) = Forecast for this week
- \(A_{t-1}\) = Actual demand last week (50)
- \(F_{t-1}\) = Forecast for last week (40)
**Step 1: Last week's forecast:**
\[
F_{\text{last week}} = \alpha A_{\text{two weeks ago}} + (1-\alpha) F_{\text{two weeks ago}}
\]
\[
= 0.46 \times 30 + (1-0.46) \times 40 = 13.8 + 21.6 = 35.4
\]
**Step 2: This week's forecast:**
\[
F_{\text{this week}} = 0.46 \times 50 + (1-0.46) \times 35.4 = 23 + 19.116 = 42.116
\]
**Final Answer:**
**This week's forecast is ≈ 42.12**
---
## 2. Five-Month Moving Average (MA) for July
**Monthly Demand:**
- Jan: 394
- Feb: 365
- Mar: 380
- Apr: 439
- May: 412
- Jun: 467
**Five-month MA for July (average of Feb–Jun):**
\[
\text{MA} = \frac{365 + 380 + 439 + 412 + 467}{5}
\]
\[
= \frac{2063}{5} = 412.6
\]
**Final Answer:**
**July forecast using five-month MA: 412.6**
---
## 3. Four-Month Weighted Moving Average for July
**Weights:**
- Last month (Jun): 0.4
- 2 months ago (May): 0.2
- 3 months ago (Apr): 0.3
- 4 months ago (Mar): 0.1
\[
\text{Weighted MA} = (0.4 \times 467) + (0.2 \times 412) + (0.3 \times 439) + (0.1 \times 380)
\]
\[
= (186.8) + (82.4) + (131.7) + (38)
\]
\[
= 438.9
\]
**Final Answer:**
**July forecast using four-month weighted MA: 438.9**
---
### **Summary Table**
| Method | July Forecast |
|-------------------------|--------------|
| Five-month MA | 412.6 |
| Four-month Weighted MA | 438.9 |
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